Title: A Metacognitive Perspective on Decision Making in Supply Chains: Revisiting the Behavioral Causes of the Bullwhip Effect

Speaker:

My central research interest is the impact of information technology on group interaction. This has grown from my study of sociology as a supporting field and my use of a computer-based group experiment for my dissertation. I have leveraged my experience with computer-supported experimentation and teamed with others to study group interaction, group behavior, and other phenomena involving multiple participating individuals.

Since completing my dissertation, I have developed several computer-based group experiments as extensions of my dissertation or as a result of discussions with other faculty members about their research. I anticipate that much of my future research will likewise involve similar extensions and collaborations. I am currently leading research projects that study 1) the creation of awareness in computer-mediated communication and its effect on group decision-making, 2) the ethical decision-making processes in individuals and groups when considering the use/misuse of information technology, and 3) supply chain decision-making and decision coordination.

I conduct my research in an interdisciplinary manner, applying theories, methods, and concepts from other fields, primarily Sociology and Organizational Psychology. I have a working knowledge of univariate and multivariate statistics and structural equation modeling (AMOS and PLS), and experience with ethnography and case study research as qualitative methods. At a more technical level, I am interested in communication technology, database design, and human-computer interaction.

Specialties: Laboratory Experiments, Social Psychological Effects of Computer-Mediated Communication, Ethical Decision Making

Abstract:

Because supply chains are complex systems of interdependent subsystems, decisions by one partner can cause large and unpredictable system-wide effects, including the so-called “bullwhip” effect. The predominant approach to mitigating the bullwhip effect has been to provide additional information to supply chain members. However, recent research suggests that even the most information rich conditions lead decision makers to create the bullwhip effect. We propose an adaptive, learning perspective on supply chain decision making. Our model recognizes the key role of meta-decisions whereby decision makers decide whether or not to incorporate additional information into their decision making process based on the extent to which they understand cause and effect relationships. An experiment in which participants made orders in a supply chain confirms that decision makers that felt they understood cause and effect relationships were more likely to incorporate relevant information into their decision processes, and thereby made better ordering decisions.